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The Impact of the Highly Improbable. Thought-provoking and full of very perceptive observations. But I particularly would like to commend authors for how well this book is written.
This is an example of non-fiction at its best. There is definitely research and background science overview but each chapter is a proper story as well. It was not only insightful but genuinely enjoyable to read this book.
I usually read several books simultaneously one or two non-fiction titles and a bunch of fiction stories. It goes straight to my absolute best non-fiction shelf. I recommend it strongly to all curious about the psychology of decision making and an ability of our mind to cope the uncertainty. Tetlock has partnered with Dan Gardner, an excellent science journalist, to write this engaging book about the 2 percent of forecasters who manage to consistently outperform their peers.
Oddly, consumers of forecasts generally do not require evidence of accuracy. Few television networ When it comes to forecasting, most pundits and professionals do little better than chimps with dartboards, according to Phillip Tetlock, who ought to know because he has spent a good deal of his life keeping track.
Few television networks or web sites score the accuracy of forecasts. It makes no sense to try to predict the economy ten years from now, for example. But he wanted to understand how the best forecasters manage to maintain accuracy over the course of many predictions.
In order to find out, he launched the Good Judgement Project, which involved volunteer forecasters who worked on a series of prediction problems over several years. After the first year, he identified the best forecasters and put them on teams to answer questions like whether Arafat was poisoned by polonium, whether WMDs were in Iraq and whether Osama bin Laden was in Abbottabad.
His findings shed light on the kind of evidence-based, probabilistic, logical thought processes that go into the best predictions. Ultimately, this is a book about critical thinking that challenges the reader to bring more rigor to his or her own thought processes.
Tetlock and Gardner have made a valuable contribution to a world of internet factoids and snap judgments.I (Matt) have really enjoyed reading Super Forcasting: The Art and Science of Prediction by Phillip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner. It's a fun book for taking a dive into forecasting.
Forecasting business revenue and expenses during the startup stage is really more art than science. Many entrepreneurs complain that building forecasts with any degree of accuracy takes a lot of.
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction is a book by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner released in It details findings from The Good Judgment Project.
Reviews. The Economist reports that superforecasters are clever (with a good mental attitude), but not necessarily schwenkreis.com: Philip E. Tetlock.
Forecasting – Art and Science on Antilles Economics | Why forecast? Forecasting, in its most basic form, is the practice of making predictions about future values of a variable, outcome and/or decision.
The question is whether forecasting is necessary, and why. The answer to the first is a resounding. The Art of Forecasting Using Solar Returns [Anthony Louis] on schwenkreis.com *FREE* shipping on qualifying offers. An in-depth and very thorough study of the technique of forecasting using Solar Returns from the popular author of 'Horary Astrology Plain and Simple'.
The clear examples and many case histories make this a strong contender for /5(11). High-end professional neural network software system to get the maximum predictive power from artificial neural network technology.
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